[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 09/1500 UTC IS NEAR 22.6N 83.0W
OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS
MOVING WNW 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85
KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FEEDER BANDS NOW EXTEND
N TO S FLORIDA WITH AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 78W-85W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRICAL ON ALL QUADRANTS
EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N32W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
30W-34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT REMAINS DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN JUST N OF THE ITCZ.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 76W
SOUTH OF 14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
72W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 7N40W 9N61W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-34W...
4N-9N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IKE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NE MEXICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 95W-99W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO
IKE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER N MEXICO IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT IKE TO SPEND THE NEXT FOUR
DAYS TRAVERSING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO N MEXICO OR S TEXAS AS A
HURRICANE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 20N AND W OF 79W. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 72W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
OUTSIDE OF IKE. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A SURFACE TROUGH...
THE REMNANTS OF T.S.JOSEPHINE... IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 22N48W 16N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 49W-51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF
20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N67W.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N39W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO 20N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS N OF 20N AND E OF 20W.

$$
FORMOSA



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