[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091208
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 09/1200 UTC IS NEAR 22.4N 82.4W
OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING
WEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER...FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W...FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND
79W...AND IN A BAND WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
25N80W 25N84W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ANOTHER BAND WITHIN 60 NM NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA
TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
COVERS FLORIDA AS FAR AS 28N...AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 22N65W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE MOST RECENT ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS WAVE
SHOWS UP IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. NEARBY WEAKENING SHOWERS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 72W
SOUTH OF 14N. THE LAKE MARACAIBO PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS
AGO HAS DIMINISHED.

...THE ITCZ...

8N11W 8N27W 7N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE COVERS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 86W...MOVING
INTO THE AREA OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN GUATEMALA/YUCATAN
PENINSULA BORDER IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO COASTAL
MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 77W AND 87W IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ANY EARLIER
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND. REMNANT SHOWERS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 33N54W TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 14N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N56W 20N61W TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N68W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W.
THE 1014 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE FROM
09/0000 UTC HAS BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH FROM 16N46W 20N48W TO
23N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 17N43W TO 22N37W BEYOND
32N34W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W 29N20W
25N24W 20N33W 16N39W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS
ISLANDS AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N60W.

$$
MT




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