[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 80.2W AT 09/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 140 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 966
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...
MOVING OVER WRN CUBA TOMORROW AND EMERGE INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF IKE REMAINS
INTERACTING WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 74W-83W. ISOLATED
BANDS OF SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-26N
BETWEEN 73W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 71W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N8W 7N19W 8N39W 8N46W 9N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 14W-21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N
BETWEEN 10W-20W...AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA INCLUDING WESTERN PORTIONS OF MAURITANIA...SENEGAL...AND
GAMBIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE NEAR
CENTRAL CUBA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SE GULF...WITH DEEP
LAYER NORTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY E OF 90W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS AROUND
CENTRAL CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH IKE. FURTHER TO THE WEST...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO RESULTING IN WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN
THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...HAVE HELPED
INITIATE A 50-NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM 24N95W TO 27N97W. ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND LOW
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF IKE ARE
RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE COAST NEAR THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ZONES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND HURRICANE IKE...
LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA...ARE AFFECTING THE NRN CARIBBEAN...
MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE. ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE IKE IS BEING AIDED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 71W WAS AFFECTING AREAS 120 NM WEST OF ARUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ABOUT 130 NM WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR CUBA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS IN PLACE...WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS LIMITING
CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...ENHANCED SURFACE
CONFLUENCE IS GENERATING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 20W. A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 18N45W IS NOT GENERATING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION...AND IS CURRENTLY BEING ABSORBED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 33N50W BENEATH THE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES IMPACTING THE
NORTHEAST ATLC...THOUGH NO CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED
GIVEN CONTINUING SURFACE DIFFLUENCE.

$$
COHEN/HUFFMAN

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