[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 79.1W AT 08/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 70 NM WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 217 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT MAKING IKE A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE CROSSED E PORTION OF CUBA THIS MORNING
MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THEN WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER WESTERN
CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND THERE IS NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 70W-82W WHICH
INCLUDES HISPANIOLA...CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT BASED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE ABC ISLANDS. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N12W 6N19W 8N34W 8N51W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM
OF LINE FROM 6N12W 5N15W TO 8N18W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 22W-27W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU W AFRICA
MOVING INTO THE E ATLC WATERS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS THE
PROGRESSION OF HURRICANE IKE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS E MEXICO NEAR 21N98W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW GULF TO 24N89W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N89W 26N95W TO OVER THE FAR S TEXAS NEAR
BROWNSVILLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF
LINE FROM S MEXICO FROM CIUDAD DE CARMEN TO MATAMOROS TO INLAND
OVER E MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE AND
THE ASSOCIATED OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING OVER THE SE GULF S OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA E OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS IT TRACKS ALONG CUBA...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA S OF 20N W
OF 82W. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES
TO DRAW A SWATH OF DRY AIR W OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS E/CENTRAL CUBA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA TO S
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 16N70W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF A LINE FROM 14N72W TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER DUE
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ THAT ENTERS THE E PACIFIC REGION
JUST S OF PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC AS IT
MOVES W ACROSS CUBA PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
BAHAMAS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 29N AND W
OF 60W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N53W S
TO 19N57W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA
GENERATING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-33N BETWEEN 46W-62W. THE REMNANT
OF JOSEPHINE...A 1014 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND IS CENTERED
NEAR 18N44W BUT NO LONGER HAS ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.
AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 20N E
OF 40W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS MADEIRA
ISLANDS TO 30N18W. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N
BETWEEN 25W-70W ANCHORED N OF THE REGION BY A 1025 MB HIGH.
$$
WALLACE




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