[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KKEY 080326
HLSKEY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1126 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS...
...HURRICANE IKE ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...

.AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 450 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF KEY WEST.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING...NEAR OR OVER
CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON MONDAY...AND NEAR WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. BANES IN THE HOLGUIN PROVINCE OF CUBA...NOT FAR FROM THE
POINT OF LANDFALL...REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 121 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...OR 27.91 INCHES.

GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-080730-
/O.CON.KKEY.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM-
1126 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 11 PM ADVISORY.
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION FOR CLOSING OF CAR RENTAL COUNTERS.
ADDED STORM SURGE SECTION FOR POTENTIAL 2 TO 4 FOOT STORM TIDES.
UPDATED WINDS TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
ADDED RAINFALL SECTION FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE KEYS.
ADDED TORNADOES SECTION FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OF THE WATCH AREA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MANDATORY EVACUATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS. ANYONE NEEDING TO FIND INFORMATION ON
AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE FLORIDA ASSISTANCE HOT
LINE AT 1-800-287-8598.

GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...
BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. THE
OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...
JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT U.S. ROUTE 41...TAMIAMI TRAIL...IN
MIAMI IS OPEN. THE SHELTER WILL ACCEPT PETS...AS LONG AS THEY ARE IN
APPROVED PET CARRIERS. NO SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE CITY OF KEY WEST EVACUATION SHUTTLE HAS SUSPENDED SERVICE FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE SHUTTLE WILL RESUME OPERATION ON MONDAY FROM
700 AM TO NOON. THIS SHUTTLE WILL TAKE RESIDENTS TO THE MONROE
COUNTY SHELTER IN MIAMI. PICK-UP LOCATIONS IN KEY WEST WILL BE AS
FOLLOWS...DOUGLASS GYM IN BAHAMA VILLAGE...KEY WEST HIGH
SCHOOL...SEARSTOWN ON NORTHSIDE DRIVE...AND BERNSTEIN PARK ON STOCK
ISLAND. THE SHUTTLE WILL ALSO PICKUP RESIDENTS AT NORMAL BUS STOP
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS UP THROUGH MARATHON. THE FINAL
GREYHOUND BUS DEPARTURE IS SCHEDULED FOR 855 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
RENTAL CAR COUNTERS AT KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE NOW CLOSED. COMMERCIAL
AIR SERVICE AT KEY WEST AIRPORT IS NOW SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. GENERAL AVIATION WILL REMAIN OPEN AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON AIRPORTS UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL KEYS HOSPITALS ARE CLOSED. DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK...ALONG
WITH ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS
WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF
SPECIFIC STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IKE. THESE WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE STRUCTURE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA AND MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES CALL FOR STORM TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MORE LIKELY IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE STORM
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE. THE
FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...

IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...
4:23 AM TUESDAY...7:07 PM TUESDAY...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY

IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...
4:05 AM TUESDAY...6:49 PM TUESDAY...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY

IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...
4:13 AM TUESDAY...5:13 PM TUESDAY...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION BY IKE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS THAN ARE
CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR ALL ROAD TRAVEL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 14 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS.

...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA
KEYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE IKE...FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...MARINE IMPACTS...

U.S COAST GUARD OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING THAT ALL BOATERS STAY OFF
THE WATER AS THE COAST GUARD HAS SCALED BACK EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL
ASSETS TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM...THUS THERE IS A LACK OF RESOURCES
TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCIES. SNAKE CREEK AND OLD JEWFISH CREEK
DRAWBRIDGES ARE LOCKED DOWN. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE KEYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 300 AM MONDAY MORNING...OR
SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

FLZ076>078-080730-
/O.CON.KKEY.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
1126 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED HURRICANE IKE INFORMATION FOR THE 11 PM ADVISORY.
UPDATED PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION FOR CLOSING OF CAR RENTAL COUNTERS.
ADDED STORM SURGE SECTION FOR POTENTIAL 2 TO 4 FOOT STORM TIDES.
UPDATED WINDS TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
ADDED RAINFALL SECTION FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE KEYS.
ADDED TORNADOES SECTION FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT DETAILS SPECIFIC PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY ACTIONS
TO BE TAKEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY CONCERNING THE
EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS OF THE WATCH AREA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A MANDATORY EVACUATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS. ANYONE NEEDING TO FIND INFORMATION ON
AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE FLORIDA ASSISTANCE HOT
LINE AT 1-800-287-8598.

GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS
REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...
BEFORE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. THE
OFFICIAL MONROE COUNTY SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...
JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT U.S. ROUTE 41...TAMIAMI TRAIL...IN
MIAMI IS OPEN. THE SHELTER WILL ACCEPT PETS...AS LONG AS THEY ARE IN
APPROVED PET CARRIERS. NO SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE CITY OF KEY WEST EVACUATION SHUTTLE HAS SUSPENDED SERVICE FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE SHUTTLE WILL RESUME OPERATION ON MONDAY FROM
700 AM TO NOON. THIS SHUTTLE WILL TAKE RESIDENTS TO THE MONROE
COUNTY SHELTER IN MIAMI. PICK-UP LOCATIONS IN KEY WEST WILL BE AS
FOLLOWS...DOUGLASS GYM IN BAHAMA VILLAGE...KEY WEST HIGH
SCHOOL...SEARSTOWN ON NORTHSIDE DRIVE...AND BERNSTEIN PARK ON STOCK
ISLAND. THE SHUTTLE WILL ALSO PICKUP RESIDENTS AT NORMAL BUS STOP
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS UP THROUGH MARATHON. THE FINAL
GREYHOUND BUS DEPARTURE IS SCHEDULED FOR 855 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
RENTAL CAR COUNTERS AT KEY WEST AIRPORT ARE NOW CLOSED. COMMERCIAL
AIR SERVICE AT KEY WEST AIRPORT IS NOW SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. GENERAL AVIATION WILL REMAIN OPEN AT BOTH KEY WEST AND
MARATHON AIRPORTS UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL KEYS HOSPITALS ARE CLOSED. DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK...ALONG
WITH ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS
WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF
SPECIFIC STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE IKE. THESE WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE PRECISE STRUCTURE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA AND MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES CALL FOR STORM TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MORE LIKELY IN THE LOWER KEYS. THE STORM
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE. THE
FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...

IN KEY WEST AT WHITE STREET PIER...
4:23 AM TUESDAY...7:07 PM TUESDAY...5:39 AM WEDNESDAY

IN MARATHON AT VACA CUT...
4:05 AM TUESDAY...6:49 PM TUESDAY...5:21 AM WEDNESDAY

IN ISLAMORADA AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...
4:13 AM TUESDAY...5:13 PM TUESDAY...5:18 AM WEDNESDAY

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION BY IKE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM TIDE LEVELS THAN ARE
CURRENTLY PREDICTED.

...WINDS...

WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR ALL ROAD TRAVEL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

FOR KEY WEST...THERE IS A 72 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 19 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MARATHON...THERE IS A 63 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 14 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER.

FOR MIAMI...THERE IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
39 MPH OR GREATER. THERE IS A 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS
74 MPH OR GREATER.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS.

...TORNADOES...

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA
KEYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE IKE...FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...MARINE IMPACTS...

U.S COAST GUARD OFFICIALS ARE RECOMMENDING THAT ALL BOATERS STAY OFF
THE WATER AS THE COAST GUARD HAS SCALED BACK EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL
ASSETS TO PREPARE FOR THE STORM...THUS THERE IS A LACK OF RESOURCES
TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCIES. SNAKE CREEK AND OLD JEWFISH CREEK
DRAWBRIDGES ARE LOCKED DOWN. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE KEYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED BY 300 AM MONDAY MORNING...OR
SOONER IF NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

JACOBSON




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