[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 75.2W AT 08/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 65 NM NORTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ALSO ABOUT 25 NM EAST
OF PUNTO DE SAMA ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MOVING W AT
12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES ERN CUBA THEN WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER ERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MON. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
THEN FORECAST AS THE CENTER MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER ALL OTHER QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 70W-77W...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS ...SE BAHAMAS...ERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 36W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WINDS STREAMING INTO THE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE S OF 15N E OF 66W AND ARE LIKELY GENERATED IN TANDEM WITH
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 6N34W 9N42W 14N55W
12N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 58W-65W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL AND
SERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS ERN MEXICO
NEAR 23N99W AND EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE NE
GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA SW TO 28N90W THEN WESTWARD TO
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WARM FRONT N OF 27N AND W OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO 22N95W. WITH THIS TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE S OF 25N
BETWEEN 84W-99W...INCLUDING WRN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS ERN CUBA TONIGHT...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N AND W OF 81W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE IS DRAWING A SWATH OF
DRY AIR W AND SW OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N AND W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE S OF 10N W OF NRN COLOMBIA TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH THE ITCZ...SEE ABOVE...AND THE BASE OF
A CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE W ATLC AS
IT TRACKS TOWARDS ERN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 30N AND W
OF 62W RESULTING IN MULTILAYERED OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS WITHIN 200
NM W OF THE CENTER AND 600 NM TO THE E OF THE CENTER. AN
ELONGATED UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 22N52W. THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ THAT IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 90
NM OF A LINE FROM 21N49W TO 13N59W. THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE...A
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N42W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
THE CENTER FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 42W-45W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSES THE ERN ATLC S OF 28N AND E OF 47W WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 23N AND E OF 30W. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN
20W-65W ANCHORED N OF THE REGION BY A 1024 MB HIGH.

$$
HUFFMAN


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