[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HANNA IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. AT
07/0600 UTC...ITS CENTER IS NEAR 41.6N 71.9W OR OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CONNECTICUT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 27 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL MOVE
NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...AND MOVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS BEGINNING TO
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE
REGION.

HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 71.4W AT 07/0600 UTC OR
OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE W AT 13 KT. A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA
AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE PAIRED WITH THE ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 60W ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP
WILL BE RELOCATED ALONG 57W/58W ON THE NEXT MAP BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10-14N BETWEEN 54W-58W. SFC WINDS ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE BLOWING FROM THE NE INDICATING THE
APPROACHING WAVE. IN ADDITION...THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
REVEALS A BULGE OF MOISTURE ALONG THIS LONGITUDE. 850 MB
SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N17W 6N26W 9N35W 10N46W 12N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-70 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS ALONG 30N89W 27N92W TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N97.5W. A 130 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W/94W S OF 23N. THIS TROUGH
IS GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N.
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING THE CITY OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IS
REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED NE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NE WINDS OF 10 KT
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SFC RIDGE FROM THE ATLC DOMINATES
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CLIPPING THE FAR N
CENTRAL GULF. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALL THE ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE IKE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE
ARE AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E AND SE PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO UNDER A SE WIND FLOW. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS
ABOUT IKE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT
WITH SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OUTFLOW OF
IKE. ALOFT...UPPER-LEVEL ELY FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN GUADALOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAJOR HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OVER THE SW ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE TROPICS...
A 1008 MB SFC LOW...REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...IS CENTERED NEAR
17N39W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE LOW CENTER WITH A
COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE N SEMICIRCLE
NEAR 19.5N38.5W AND THE STRONGEST ONE NEAR 19.5N42W. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. A
1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 38N44W EXTENDS A RIDGE SWWD INTO THE E
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALSO ENVELOPS THE N PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND W ATLC INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF IS STEERING IKE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 22N51W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH
SITUATED NEAR 20N31W. A JET-STREAM BRANCH IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR







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