[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 39.5N 74.6W AT 07/0000 UTC
NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MOVING NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
12-24 HOURS. HANNA IS ENTERING THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR..FOLLOWED BY A
RAPID EASTWARD MOTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY FROM 38N-40N BETWEEN 72W-75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM 41W-44W
BETWEEN 70W-75W.

HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 07/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 60 MILES...105 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING WSW
AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE HAS INTENSIFIED TO A EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS UPWELLED
BY HANNA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 67W-72W TO INCLUDE NE HISPANIOLA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 31W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
23W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND APPEARS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 54W-58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 58W-63W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N16W 6N23W 10N34W 8N40W 12N55W 12N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S
TEXAS ALONG 31N87W 27N90W 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 22N97W 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
88W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE US INTO THE NW GULF. A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W TO 22N94W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SRN
GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA..
HURRICANE IKE IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E
CUBA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-82W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT HURRICANE IKE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE
SW ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE TROPICS...THE
REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N38W WITH 1009 MB.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 36W-40W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N50W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N25W.

$$
FORMOSA






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