[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 060850
TCDAT5
JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

JOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS IT ADVECTS
ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSEST TO BAM-SHALLOW.

WITH THE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE...
REGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
LIKELY.  HOWEVER...AT DAYS 3 AND 4 ALL GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW THE
SHEAR RELAXING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM JOSEPHINE'S
REMNANTS.  DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY
REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE AT THE LONGER RANGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND KEEPS JOSEPHINE
DISSIPATED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 16.8N  36.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N  38.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  40.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  42.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.9N  44.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  48.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

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