[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 06/0600 UTC IS NEAR
33.3N 78.8W OR ABOUT 30 MILES/45 KM SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES/95 KM SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA. HANNA IS MOVING NORTH 17 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 31N TO 33N
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W MOVING INLAND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND IN
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH OF 33N EAST OF 81W...AND SPREADING INTO
NORTH CAROLINA EAST OF 80W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 22.5N 66.1W
OR ABOUT 330 MILES/530 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE
CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE IKE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE GONE DOWN COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. HURRICANE
IKE STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 23.5N BETWEEN 64W
AND 67W.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE AT
06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 16.3N 35.8W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 6 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS CLEARED THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AND NOW IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 19...MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 13N
BETWEEN 27W AND 29W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN BETWEEN
HURRICANE IKE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS IN BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JOSEPHINE. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS
MORE RELATED TO THE LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE TROUGH AND THE
ITCZ INSTEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN UP BY THE ACTIVITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONES. AN ITCZ IS ALONG 16N17W 15N20W
12N39W 11N43W 13N50W 12N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 13N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
TROPICAL STORM HANNA 24 HOURS AGO WAS SEPARATED FROM THE STORM.
HANNA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH NOW IS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N84W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 25N85W...TO 23N88W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 23N93W...
TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N96W...TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVER THE LAND AREA BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 100W. A SHALLOW
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W
TO 26N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND EVEN TO 26N95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH
THAT WERE MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO NOW ARE
MOVING THROUGH COLOMBIA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WITH THE TROUGH IS
NEAR 6N75W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO 15N75W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W
AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IS
PUSHING THE TROUGH WESTWARD. RESIDUAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE 25N85W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA INTO
HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE DRY
AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W AND
THE REMNANT CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THROUGH 32N68W...TOWARD THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NEAR 24N73W...
AND ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF T.S. HANNA PUSHING IT
NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N56W
TO 29N60W TOWARD HURRICANE IKE...IMPARTING UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
SHEAR ON THE HURRICANE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N18W TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 31N28W TO 27N36W TO A COMPARATIVELY-BIGGER-
IN-SIZE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N44W TO 10N54W. THIS
CENTER IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE AND
HURRICANE IKE. BROAD NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF HURRICANE IKE.

$$
MT




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