[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 060255
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSACE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 978 MB BUT WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN
SHRINKING SINCE HANNA APPEARS TO BE MORE TROPICAL AND THERE IS A
PERSISTENT AND LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HANNA
COULD REACH THE COAST IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS AS A HURRICANE SINCE IT
ONLY NEEDS FIVE KNOTS TO BE ONE. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN A STRONG
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SOON HANNA SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER
LANDFALL...AS HANNA BECOMES FULLY INVOLVED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW...IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
DURING THIS PERIOD...HANNA WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 32.4N  79.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 34.9N  78.6W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  75.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 42.5N  69.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 46.5N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 51.5N  27.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z 55.0N  13.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net