[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.6N 79.3W AT 06/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 85 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MOVING
N AT 17 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUTHERLY UPPER WINDS ARE PROVIDING SHEAR OVER
HANNA AND COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ARE LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE
SRN SEMICIRCLE. HANNA STILL REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH A TURN TO THE NE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLC
COAST OF THE US. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-33N BETWEEN 78W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 30N TO BEYOND 32N W OF 76W TO
INLAND OVER THE SE US...INCLUDING FAR NE FLORIDA.

HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 64.7W AT 06/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
365 NM EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING W-SW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NORTHERLY UPPER WINDS HAVE PRODUCED
SHEAR OVER IKE THUS WEAKENING IT SLIGHTLY. THIS SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN FOLLOWING COUPLE DAYS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF A W ATLC UPPER HIGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 62W-67W.

TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 35.2W AT 05/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 630 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER
SHEAR HAVE COMPLETELY EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF JOSEPHINE
WITH NO REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN
WEAKEN. THEREFORE IF THE LOW CENTER REMAINS INTACT...JOSEPHINE
COULD RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W S OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND APPEAR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N15W 14N23W 11N39W 9N52W...
DISRUPTED BY THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND T.S. JOSEPHINE. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 9W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 25W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 45W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
NW GULF WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ALONG THE WRN
MISSISSIPPI COAST EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 26N94W. A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SRN MEXICO IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO THE NE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE
E/CENTRAL MEXICO COAST FROM 23N96W TO NEAR XALAPA MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N-26N W OF
96W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. MULTILAYERED OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS FROM T.S.
HANNA IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF E OF 90W ROTATING AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE
W ATLC E OF T.S. HANNA CENTERED NEAR 27N74W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 76W-81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO COVER HONDURAS AND THE ADJACENT NRN COAST S
OF 17N BETWEEN 84W-90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS NOTED
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-79W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AS OUTFLOW STREAMS SW FROM HURRICANE IKE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE ARE LOCATED IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED E OF T.S. HANNA
NEAR 27N74W AND EXTENDING S OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ERN ATLC W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
ALONG 32N31W THEN SW TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N46W
CONTINUING OVER THE TROPICS TO 13N51W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-58W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W
AFRICA ALONG 22N TO 40W AND S OF 30N. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N E OF 55W AND N OF 30N E
OF 70W ANCHORED N OF THE REGION. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT/SAT MORNING WITH IKE EFFECTING THE TURKS
AND CAICOS BY SAT NIGHT/SUN.

$$
HUFFMAN




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