[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC WEST OF 40W...AND THROUGH 0545 UTC EAST OF 40W...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 05/0600 UTC IS NEAR
27.2N 77.2W...OR ABOUT 55 MILES/90 KM NORTH OF GREAT ABACO
ISLAND...AND ABOUT 490 MILES/790 KM SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA. HANNA IS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS INTERIOR FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...TO THE WEST OF HANNA.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR 23.6N 59.5W
MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 24.5N BETWEEN 58W
AND 61W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 05/0300 UTC IS NEAR
15.1N 33.8W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED ON
THE 05/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH
THE THEN-CURRENT QUIKSCAT DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN UP BY THE ACTIVITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONES. AN ITCZ IS ALONG 10N36W 11N44W
8N60W AT THE GUYANA/VENEZUELA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND
55W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE IKE AND TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W...
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W...AND FROM 8N TO 14N
BETWEEN 28W AND 38W SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 25N93W 21N94W
18N97W. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS...TO THE WATERS JUST OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 29N90W 25N93W 22N94W 19N96W 17N100W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W...ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 84W
AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 24N...AND THEN SOUTH
OF 24N EAST OF 90W...AND ALSO NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 80W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN A CURVED LINE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N69W
28N69W 30N70W 31N71W 31N72W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF THE WESTERN CUBA
22N83W TO HONDURAS 16N85W TROUGH...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
VENEZUELA NEAR 7N67W. CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER
COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 70W IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
THE DRY AIR ALSO IS EAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 60W. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT IS SPINNING AROUND HURRICANE IKE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE AREAS OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE WITH
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TROUGH AND THE OTHER ONE APPROACHING
FROM THE EAST. THE COMPARATIVELY MORE NOTABLE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W IN NICARAGUA...AND ALONG A LINE
FROM 50 NM SOUTH OF OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO
TO 30 NM EAST OF NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE TROUGH THAT WAS TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA
HAS SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW
ENGULFS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA
AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
NORTH OF HURRICANE IKE TO HISPANIOLA AND THEN NORTHWARD TO THE
WATERS TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
31N27W TO 28N37W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N45W
TO 13N49W. THIS CENTER IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL STORM
JOSEPHINE AND HURRICANE IKE. BROAD NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE IKE.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net