[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 04/1200 UTC IS NEAR 24.1N
73.1W...

OR ABOUT 325 MILES/525 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS. HANNA IS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OF HANNA IS BEING
RIPPED UP AND CUT UP BY THE FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HANNA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A LINE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN
67W AND 71W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR 22.7N 55.8W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 935 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 125 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR
14.2N 31.3W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS GETTING READY TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA...SPARKING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W.

...THE ITCZ...
10N13W 10N26W 9N39W 8N50W TO TRINIDAD. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN
30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA/MEXICO...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A TROUGH COINCIDE WITH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...AND REMAIN ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 21N.
ANOTHER WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO 19N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A 23N76W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSES EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W...AND
ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N83W...REACHING
WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W TO THE HAITI COAST
NEAR 18N73W...TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF THE 23N76W 15N88W TROUGH...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HANNA
COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 67W/68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH ROLLS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS EAST OF 67/68W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE WEST OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHES
33N70W FROM POINTS TO THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS COMPLETELY
SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL
STORM HANNA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 20N39W IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AND
HURRICANE IKE. CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN
34W AND 50W.

$$
MT




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