[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040620
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 04/0600 UTC IS NEAR
23.7N 72.4W...OR ABOUT 325 MILES/525 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN
72W AND 74W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 22.1N 54.1W
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 948 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR
13.9N 30.7W MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 29W AND 32W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS GETTING READY TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA...SPARKING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W/66W FROM 24 HOURS
AGO HAS BEEN DELETED FROM THE ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ...
10N13W 9N18W 10N45W 9N54W...TO TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 14W
AND 20W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA/MEXICO...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A TROUGH COINCIDE WITH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN LOUISIANA AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ANOTHER WEAK MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 26N89W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N 86W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND GUATEMALA TO MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N ALONG 100W.

FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A 23N76W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSES EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W...AND
ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N83W...REACHING
WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA NORTH OF 13N EAST
OF 85W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF
THE 23N76W 15N88W TROUGH..,
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HANNA
COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 66W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH ROLLS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS EAST OF 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 81W.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
65W AND 66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHES
33N71W FROM POINTS TO THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS COMPLETELY
SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL
STORM HANNA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N67W BEYOND
32N61W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N38W IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AND
TROPICAL STORM IKE. CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W.

$$
MT







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