[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV AT 03/0900 UTC IS
NEAR 33.6NO 94.3W...OR ABOUT 20 MILES/32 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS AND 120 MILES/193 KM SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS. GUSTAV IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST 3 MPH...5 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 MPH/
32 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 997 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALL THE STRONG
PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAND FROM LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BETWEEN WESTERN ALABAMA AND EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 03/1200 UTC IS NEAR 20.3N
71.8W OR ABOUT 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MOVING
EAST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AT 67W
AND 74W SOUTH OF HAITI, THE WHOLE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W IS COVERED BY CLOUDS AND OTHER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF T.S. HANNA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR 20.6N
49.6W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
T.S IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR
13.7N 27.5W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORYLATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N90W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 25N TO HONDURAS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE BEING SHEARED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CENTER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 32N68W
TO 20N74W TROUGH DIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF JAMAICA
NEAR 17N76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HANNA COVERS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W
TO 28N71W 25N73W TO 20N74W JUST WEST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 31N61W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N61W TO 27N65W. ALL PRECIPITATION THAT
APPEARED TO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM IKE MAKES ITS UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING AWAY FROM T.S. HANNA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
OF T.S. JOSEPHINE AND T.S. IKE. REMNANTS OF AN ITCZ ARE ALONG
10N34W 7N44W 12N57W. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 19W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCU WAY WESTWARD...SURROUNDED
IMMEDIATELY BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IKE ULTIMATELY IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N14W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N17W...CURVING TO 21N27W AND 16N30W AND
17N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N33W TO 25N34W AND 22N35W
IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS BEING
COVERED BY THE 32N14W 17N39W TROUGH.

$$
MT


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