[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 030843
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE HANNA HAS ALMOST COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS
NOW POSSIBLY TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
DECREASED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 993 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE REPORT THAT ALSO
MEASURED 25-KT SURFACE WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES
RELEASED AROUND HANNAFROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT...
WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.2N  72.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 21.5N  72.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 23.2N  74.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 24.8N  76.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.2N  78.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 33.7N  80.0W    70 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 42.5N  71.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT     08/0600Z 51.0N  55.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net