[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV AT 03/0300 UTC
WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 94.0W...OR ABOUT 15 MILES/24 KM
SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS...AND 50 MILES/80 KM NORTH
OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. ALL THE STRONG PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAND FROM
LOUISIANA TO ARKANSAS BETWEEN WESTERN ALABAMA AND EAST TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 03/0600 UTC IS NEAR 20.1N
72.5W...MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS POSITION
ALSO IS JUST EAST OF ILE DE LA TORTUE HAITI AND ABOUT 80 MILES/
130 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES/370 KM FROM THE
CENTER. HANNA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
OVERNIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES/370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND
70W BETWEEN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 18N72W. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN EACH AREA OF PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM -80C TO
-85C...WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING 52000 FEET. THE WHOLE AREA FROM
14N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W IS COVERED BY CLOUDS AND OTHER
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF T.S. HANNA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 03/0300 UTC IS NEAR 19.9N
47.9W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. T.S IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 03/0300 UTC IS NEAR
13.6N 26.8W MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 26W AND 28W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING AWAY FROM T.S. HANNA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 13N22W 11N40W 9N53W TO TRINIDAD. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W
AND 42W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N 40W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N90W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 25N TO HONDURAS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE BEING SHEARED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CENTER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HANNA COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W
TO 28N71W 25N72W TO THE BASE NEAR 21N75W JUST WEST OF TROPICAL
STORM HANNA. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF COLD FRONT REACHES
31N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N60W TO 27N64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 58W AND
60W. TROPICAL STORM IKE MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD...SURROUNDED
IMMEDIATELY BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IKE ULTIMATELY IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.
MOVING THROUGH EIN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N51W TO 25N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N15W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
23N19W...CURVING TO 20N27W AND 16N30W AND 18N38W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N33W TO 25N34W AND 22N35W IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS BEING COVERED BY
THE 31N15W 18N38W TROUGH.

$$
MT




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