[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021206
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR
31.3N 93.0W...OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM WEST OF ALEXANDRIA
LOUISIANA. GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. ALL THE STRONG PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAND FROM
LOUISIANA TO ARKANSAS BETWEEN WESTERN ALABAMA AND EAST TEXAS.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA AT 02/1200 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 73.1W
WEST OR VERY NEAR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 335 MILES...615
KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. HANNA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
2 KT...4 KM/HR. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND ON TOP OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI FROM 17N
TO 18N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 74.5W. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN JAMAICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR 18.0N
41.6W. IKE IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
T.S IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE
COMPUTER MODELS TO EXPAND WESTWARD WILL STEER THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
42W AND 43W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N44W 20N48W 23N49W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE 13N22W/1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS SIX HOURS EARLIER. THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR 12.3N 23.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS MOVING WEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N
TO 16N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N
TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN
OCCURRING NEAR THERE HAD WEAKENED AND IT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN.

...THE ITCZ...

15N17W 11N25W 8N37W 10N50W 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N WITH T.S. GUSTAV.
AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N83W
IN THE EASTERN SECTION TO 22N90W JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE HANNA MOVES FROM
60W ALL THE WAY TO 80W AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A BROAD
INVERTED TROUGH SPREADS FROM 80W SOUTH OF 16N ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N51W TO 25N57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
23N20W 20N30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

$$
MT


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