[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 30.7N 92.2W AT 02/0000 UTC
ABOUT 13 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF OPELOUSAS LOUISIANA OR ABOUT 30
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MOVING NW AT 12 KT.
GUSTAV IS NOW FAR INLAND ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SRN AND WRN MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...SRN
MISSOURI....SE OKLAHOMA...AND NE TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GULF COAST TONIGHT. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
THE N/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-95W.

HURRICANE HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 72.3W AT 02/0000 UTC OR
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS MOVING S-SW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HANNA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 69W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 65W-79W.
THIS STRONG SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE SE
BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA... THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 40.6W AT 01/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 1215 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 14KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO EXPAND WWD WILL STEER THIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST TO W-NW TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 17N WITH A 1007 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERING AN AREA FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WWD AT
15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 20N WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVES SLOWLY WWD APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 56W-62W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N14W 12N18W 11N24W 12N35W
7N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W...CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCATED
INLAND OVER SRN LOUISIANA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS SHOW THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF WITH OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS
OF PRECIPITATION N OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-95W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W AND EXTENDS RIDGING OVER
THE GULF E OF 94W...INCLUDING THE SE CONUS AND THE STATE OF
FLORIDA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER HIGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE HANNA OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 65W-79W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE ERN
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W IS PROVIDING AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND PUERTO RICO TO AID IN
GENERATING THIS ACTIVITY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 57W/58W...AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
HIGH CENTERED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND W OF 75W. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED
S OF 16N AND W OF 75W TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS COSTA RICA...WRN
PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND W OF 72W DUE TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 73W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-73W. A
1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR 22N52W. STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 50W-52W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N40W COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 27W-50W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC E OF 27W
AND CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB
HIGH IS SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC.

$$
HUFFMAN


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