[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 011245
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
745 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STONE...
GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WASHINGTON COUNTY OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
COASTAL ALABAMA...AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR EXPECTED
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY
LATE MORNING TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...
WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-011600-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
745 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED TO INCREASE THE TOTAL STORM TIDE HEIGHTS ALONG THE ALABAMA
COAST AND MOBILE BAY AREA.

AT 7 AM CDT...TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WERE RISING...RUNNING FROM
4 TO 5 FEET. COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOBILE BAY AREA AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.

BANDS OF HEAVIER SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. AS THE BANDS OF
SQUALLS MOVE IN...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN PERIODIC STRONGER
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAIN
BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA
ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM CDT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE
MORNING TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

AT 7 AM...TIDE GAGES AROUND THE MOBILE BAY AREA AND THE SOUTHERN
SHORES OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES ARE REPORTING TIDE HEIGHTS FROM
4 TO 5 FEET. THE TIDE GAGES ARE INDICATING THE WATER LEVELS CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY RISE THIS MORNING. TIDE GAGE DATA ALONG THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INDICATED WATER LEVELS AROUND 3 FEET.

MAXIMUM TOTAL STORM TIDE COULD REACH 6 TO 8 FEET BY LATE MORNING ALONG
SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF MOBILE BAY.
ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY AND SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY...
THE TOTAL STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET BY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS AROUND 4 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WE ARE ENTERING INTO A NEAP TIDE CYCLE AS
HURRICANE GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL TO THE WEST...SO THE ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL STORM TIDE HEIGHT.

THE INCREASING TIDE LEVELS WILL CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 90 CAUSEWAY BETWEEN MOBILE AND SPANISH FORT...ALONG
HIGHWAY 193 IN SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY TO DAUPHIN ISLAND...ALONG THE WEST
END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...A FEW LOW LYING AREAS ON THE EAST END OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND...AND THE FORT PICKENS AREA NEAR PENSACOLA. COASTAL
FLOODING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AROUND BAYOU LA BATRE AND CODEN IN
SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH
WINDS AND EXTREMELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE
THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF...DO NOT ENTER THE WATER
UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

MAJOR TO EXTENSIVE BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE.
MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA STATE LINE EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

...WINDS...

STRONG WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED PERIODICALLY
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH LIKELY IN PERIODIC SQUALLS. FARTHER INLAND...
WINDS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER...BUT STILL GUSTING TO NEAR 45 MPH AT TIMES
AS THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH.

AS SQUALLS WITH HIGHER WINDS AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING...SOME MOBILE HOMES WILL SUSTAIN MINOR TO MODERATE
DAMAGE. POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND
PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF
SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE
DAMAGED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...
CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN
DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES
AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL
BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL
TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES. A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN.

...INLAND FLOODING...

PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF ON THE EAST SIDE OF
GUSTAV WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL...
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS OUTER RAIN BANDS OFFSHORE MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE AROUND 10 AM CDT.

$$

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-011600-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
745 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

HURRICANE GUSTAV REMAINS A CATEGORY 3 STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST...POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV... SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60
MILES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST NORTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA OUT FOR
60 NAUTICAL MILES...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE
MORNING TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

...WINDS...

EAST WINDS AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVES NORTHWEST JUST
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE PEAKING THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 FEET ABOUT
5 MILES
OFF THE COAST TO 35 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE AROUND 10 AM CDT.

$$

ALZ052-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-011600-
/O.CON.KMOB.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080902T0600Z/
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
745 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST...HEADED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA GULF COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING.

BANDS OF HEAVIER SQUALLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT
40 TO 50 MPH IN THESE SQUALLS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

WAYNE...PERRY...GREENE...STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IN EFFECT.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE
MORNING TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

...WINDS...

EAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS HEAVY SQUALLS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

AS SQUALLS WITH HIGHER WINDS AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING...MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL
ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES
AND SIDING. A FEW POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED.
UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND
LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS
WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE
UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. PEOPLE RESIDING IN
FEMA TRAILERS NEED TO EVACUATE THEM AND SEEK SAFER SHELTER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AS GUSTAV
CONTINUES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI... EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TO AREA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING AS BANDS OF HEAVIER SQUALLS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE
MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE AROUND 10 AM CDT.

$$

ALZ051-053>060-011600-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-
COVINGTON-
745 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA VALID UNTIL 4 PM CDT.

HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST...HEADED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA GULF COAST JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE BANDS OF
SQUALLS COULD CONTAIN TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE
MORNING TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

...WINDS...

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE
MORE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MOBILE AROUND 10 AM CDT.

$$

GARMON




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