[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 28.8N 90.1W AT 01/1100 UTC OR
ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MOVING NW AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GUSTAV'S CORE OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME
MORE SYMMETRICAL AND A LARGE FEEDER BAND IS N OF THE CENTER.
STORM INTENSITY IS STEADY AS IT APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF
GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 89W-91W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
85W-92W DUE TO A FEEDER BAND.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.6N 72.4W AT 01/1100 UTC
OR ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MOVING W AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS EXPERIENCING
NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THIS WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY S OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 68W-73W. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 68W-74W TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38 FROM 10N TO 23N WITH AN EMBEDDED
1006 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 17N. THE WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS ALREADY OVER THE SURFACE LOW.
THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
COVERS A LARGE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 19W FROM
7N TO 16N. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W FROM 15N TO 27N WITH AN EMBEDDED
1008 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 22N. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT AND THE LOW IS DEFINED BY A SWIRL OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS ALOFT DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
N OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 9N19W 17N37W 11N40W
13N55W 13N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 36W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING LANDFALL ON THE
LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL
CORE CONVECTION IS ALREADY OVER LAND...AS IS THE NORTHERN FEEDER
BAND. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OVERCAST SKIES ARE OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
71W-77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER INLAND BELIZE AND
GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 64W-74W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W. T.S.
HANNA AND THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N52W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W.`

$$
FORMOSA




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