[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Sep 1 02:17:21 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KLCH 010715
HLSLCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AS GUSTAV NEARS...
.AT 100 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WOULD REACH THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY
TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.
LAZ052>054-011200-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
THE FOLLOWING PARISHES...
IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
IBERIA PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
ST. MARY PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
VERMILION PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ST. MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES.
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL JUST
SOUTH OF HOUMA...A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE EYE OF GUSTAV
IS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF ST. MARY AND IBERIA PARISHES...BRINGING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
INTO VERMILION PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EYE LANDFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...MOST OF ST. MARY PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH
STORM SURGE...WITH IBERIA PARISH INUNDATED UP TO LA 87 AND LA
182. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
VERMILION PARISH.
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH
OF HOUMA...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMILION PARISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHES
THE LAFAYETTE REGION...BRINGING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE CENTER
CONTINUES NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EYE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...MOST OF VERMILION PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH
STORM SURGE SOUTH OF LA 14...WHICH WOULD BE SIMILAR TO HURRICANE
RITA'S STORM SURGE THREE YEARS AGO. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE
BUT POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A LARGE AND
DANGEROUS DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
120 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH. THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY...TO FRANKLIN...TO
NEW IBERIA...TO LAFAYETTE. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE
STORM MOVES INLAND...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
GUSTAV TO REMAIN A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES LAFAYETTE.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL
MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO
MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF
UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL.
ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS
AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE
LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE
BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE
POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.
NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER
POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS
FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY
DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM
SIZED TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE
UPROOTED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT.
LIVESTOCK LEFT OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW
LIVESTOCK DEATHS ARE LIKELY.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN REACH THE NEW IBERIA AND ABBEVILLE
AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MORGAN CITY AREA
LATE MORNING MONDAY...AND THE NEW IBERIA AND ABBEVILLE AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
MORGAN CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...98 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...61 PERCENT.
NEW IBERIA.
TROPICAL STORM...97 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...49 PERCENT.
INTRACOASTAL CITY.
TROPICAL STORM...94 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...40 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
TEN TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-011200-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FROM PORT THIS MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 FEET BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS
EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BY MIDMORNING MONDAY...AND REACH
INTRACOASTAL CITY AND VERMILION BAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST
WEST OF PECAN ISLAND.
...TORNADOES...
WATER SPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ051-TXZ215-011200-
/O.CON.KLCH.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
CAMERON PARISH...JEFFERSON COUNTY.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR CAMERON PARISH. A
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH
OF HOUMA...A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CAMERON PARISH. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
REACHES WESTERN LOUISIANA...BRINGING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE CENTER
CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EYE LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THESE
LEVELS...MOST OF CAMERON PARISH WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH
STORM SURGE SOUTH OF LA 384. AGAIN...THIS IS A WORST CASE BUT
POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
JEFFERSON
ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH
OF HOUMA...A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER THE CENTER IS WELL
INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CAMERON PARISH MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IMPACTING SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME... RESIDENTS OF CAMERON PARISH AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHOULD EXPECT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 TO 50 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RESIDENTS OF EASTERN CAMERON PARISH SHOULD EXPECT MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...50 TO 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
CAMERON.
TROPICAL STORM...76 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...17 PERCENT.
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM...61 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...7 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
TWO TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ028-029-011200-
/O.CON.KLCH.TI.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080902T1500Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.HI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-080902T1500Z/
RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
...NEW INFORMATION...
GUSTAV CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWEST TRACK.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
AVOYELLES AND RAPIDES PARISHES.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PREPARE FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...FROM 55 TO 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY
MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH.
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE MARKSVILLE AREA AROUND LATE MORNING
MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO ALEXANDRIA AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
AROUND 10 PM MONDAY NIGHT.
MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.
MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
ALEXANDRIA.
TROPICAL STORM...86 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...16 PERCENT.
MARKSVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...90 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...20 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
EIGHT TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ031>033-042>045-055-011200-
/O.CON.KLCH.HI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080902T1500Z/
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
GUSTAV CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWEST TREK.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.
THE PARISHES OF ACADIA...EVANGELINE...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST.
MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ACADIA.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR RESIDENTS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
RESIDENTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92...AND FOR MOBILE HOMES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10.
ALLEN.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
JEFFERSON DAVIS.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS NOW IN EFFECT.
LAFAYETTE.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
UPPER ST. MARTIN.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...WINDS...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AROUND NOON MONDAY AS A LARGE
AND DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 150 MPH. THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NEAR A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY...TO FRANKLIN...TO NEW IBERIA...TO
LAFAYETTE...AND TO EUNICE. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE
STORM MOVES INLAND...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
GUSTAV TO REMAIN A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES LAFAYETTE.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ALL
MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO
MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL.
ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS
AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE
LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE
BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE
POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.
NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER
POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS
FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL.
NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY
DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED
TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND.
UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED.
MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT. LIVESTOCK LEFT
OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW LIVESTOCK DEATHS
ARE LIKELY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH
BEFORE DAWN MONDAY MORNING...REACH THE LAFAYETTE AREA BY EARLY
MORNING...AND REACH THE CROWLEY...VILLE PLATTE...AND OPELOUSAS
AREAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH
LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH AROUND NOON...REACH THE LAFAYETTE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE CROWLEY...VILLE PLATTE...AND OPELOUSAS
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
ST. MARTINVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...97 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...48 PERCENT.
LAFAYETTE.
TROPICAL STORM...96 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...43 PERCENT.
OPELOUSAS.
TROPICAL STORM...95 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...37 PERCENT.
VILLE PLATTE.
TROPICAL STORM...93 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...30 PERCENT.
CROWLEY.
TROPICAL STORM...93 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...36 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
TEN TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON MONDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ027-030-041-011200-
/O.CON.KLCH.TI.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080902T1500Z/
VERNON-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
GUSTAV CONTINUES ON ITS JOURNEY TO THE NORTHWEST.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE PARISHES OF BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...VERNON.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND BE PREPARED FOR MODERATE TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
BEAUREGARD PARISH.
A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
CALCASIEU PARISH.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...WINDS...
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING CALCASIEU PARISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD DE RIDDER
AND LEESVILLE BY MID AFTERNOON AS GUSTAV MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DE RIDDER.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
LAKE CHARLES AND VICINITY.
TROPICAL STORM...82 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...19 PERCENT.
DE RIDDER.
TROPICAL STORM...81 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...14 PERCENT.
LEESVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...80 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...12 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
THREE TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINFALL
OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
TXZ180>182-201-216-011200-
/O.CON.KLCH.TI.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080902T1500Z/
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-ORANGE-
215 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
GUSTAV CONTINUES ON IT NORTHWEST TRACK.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE COUNTIES OF HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...ORANGE...TYLER.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
EVACUATION INFORMATION:
ORANGE COUNTY.
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ORANGE COUNTY.
AT THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK OF GUSTAV MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF
SABINE LAKE AFTER THE CENTER IS WELL INLAND...AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
ON THE CURRENT PATH OF GUSTAV...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING ORANGE COUNTY BY MONDAY EVENING...
THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST IN TO EAST TEXAS AS GUSTAV MOVES TO
THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN OLDER MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. SOME
SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
TOWN BLUFF.
TROPICAL STORM...65 PERCENT
HURRICANE...6 PERCENT.
VILLAGE MILLS AND WOODVILLE.
TROPICAL STORM...59 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...4 PERCENT.
ORANGE.
TROPICAL STORM...70 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...11 PERCENT.
NEWTON.
TROPICAL STORM...73 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...9 PERCENT.
JASPER.
TROPICAL STORM...69 PERCENT.
HURRICANE...7 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 530 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
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