[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 88.1W AT 01/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 220 MILES SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MOVING NW AT 14 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. GUSTAV HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST. AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE
COAST. GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE CENTER FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 84W-92W.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA CENTERED NEAR 23.7N 72.2W AT 01/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS EXPERIENCING
NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THIS WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY S OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 69W-73W. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 68W-74W TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 12N TO 23N WITH AN EMBEDDED
1006 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N. THE WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE FLOW ALOFT AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
ANTICYCLONIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE CIRCULATION
COVERS A LARGE AREA AND THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG
12W FROM 6N TO 16N. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 15W-21W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W FROM 14N TO 26N WITH AN EMBEDDED
1010 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 21N. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT AND THE LOW IS DEFINED BY A SWIRL OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS ALOFT DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 14N34W 10N40W 09N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 11W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS THE MAIN TOPIC FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS
IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NW TOWARDS LOUISIANA WHERE LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. OVERCAST SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
65W-73W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W. T.S.
HANNA AND THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N52W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W.`

$$
FORMOSA




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