[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 73W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
31/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AS STRONG E-NE SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 8N20W 10N25W 10N29W 11N44W
12N47W 9N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
12N25W TO 7N29W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ...EXTENDS FROM 17N44W TO 11N46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 41W-47W. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE ERN US AND CONTINUES TO
CLIP THE W ATLC AND NE GULF N OF 27N AND E OF 88W. SCATTERED
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF 84W. A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ENTIRE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER S CAROLINA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS DOMINATED BY
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS LIMITING ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM THE W
ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER JAMAICA DISSIPATING
OFF THE COAST OF NRN HONDURAS. IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 80W. THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 16N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N AND W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 56W WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE ATLC NEAR
31N56W EXTENDING ALONG 22N69W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N66W W-SW TO 27N76W. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING OFF
THE ERN US COAST. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO NEAR 32N47W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 26N46W INTO THE TROPICS TO
NEAR 10N50W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 24N AND E OF 40W TO OVER NW
AFRICA. A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC FROM FAR WRN AFRICA ALONG 10N TO 40W. THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ITCZ. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS AGAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN N OF
20N AND E OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
HUFFMAN




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