[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE W
OF THE WAVE USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 7N18W 11N27W 9N34W 13N47W
10N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 14N23W
TO 8N25W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N22W TO 10N28W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM
11N-17N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 38W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 175/200 NM OF LINE FROM 10N31W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 5N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US AND CONTINUES OVER
THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. ISOLATED/
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF
87W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1035 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS. THE E
GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR WHICH IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER
THE E JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK E/W UPPER
RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
USHERED IN ON THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE ATLC NEAR
32N57W EXTENDING ALONG 26N62W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE
FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W
TO 28N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE COLD
FRONT TO OFF THE US EAST COAST. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR W PUERTO RICO NE TO NEAR 27N57W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N50W INTO THE
TROPICS TO NEAR 10N56W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 35W
TO OVER NW AFRICA. A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 9N/10N TO 45W. THE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ITCZ. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS AGAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN N OF
20N E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

$$
WALLACE



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