[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
W OF THE WAVE USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 9N25W 7N32W 11N43W 9N62W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 16N23W TO 8N27W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N19W 12N15W TO 10N29W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM
11N-19N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N W
OF 39W TO THE TROUGH AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175/200 NM OF LINE FROM
10N33W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 5N41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US AND CONTINUES OVER
THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. SCATTERED
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE S OF 28N W OF 86W WITH DENSE
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BANKING OVER S MEXICO
AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF
21N W OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS REMARKABLY CLEAR
AGAIN TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY UPPER
WINDS PRODUCING A WEAK JETSTREAM WITH WINDS T0 90 KT WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W ALONG 26N90W TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N821W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER
THE E JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
A WEAK E/W UPPER RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 79W-83W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE USHERED IN ON THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH
STATIONARY FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE ATLC NEAR
32N57W EXTENDING ALONG 25N65W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A
RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N64W ALONG 29N74W THEN NE TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT TO 80W. A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO NE TO NEAR
29N55W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N50W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N56W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 25N
E OF 43W TO OVER NW AFRICA. A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 13N TO 45W.
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND
ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE




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