[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 23W/24W WAS REPOSITIONED ALONG 20W
S OF 16W AS A SURFACE TROUGH DUE TO THE LACK OF MOVEMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 53W WAS REPOSITIONED ALONG 51W FROM
16N-23N AS A SURFACE TROUGH DUE TO THE LACK OF MOVEMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 11N-19N MOVING W 10 KT. A
WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 12N72W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 20N66W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 11N21W 10N30W 13N41W 9N62W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 41W FROM 9N-15N
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N38W
TO 15N42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
7W-14W...FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 26W-33W AND FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC
CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 87W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE S OF 26N E OF 91W WITH DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BANKING OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 91W-96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY
WESTERLY UPPER WINDS WHICH CONTINUE TO ADVECT UPPER MOSITURE
FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF AS
THIN HIGH CLOUDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE E JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE W
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 14N75W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS UNDER EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN
USHERED IN ON THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH A
WEAKENING JETSTREAM OF WINDS 80 TO 90 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W WIDENING TO WITHIN 200 NM
NEAR 32N67W. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING
TO 25N64W BECOMING STATIONARY JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM W OF
THE FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO 78W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 22N62W EXTENDING NE TO 30N54W. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N50W INTO THE
TROPICS 10N61W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF
30W TO OVER NW AFRICA WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 11N17W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 22N E OF 52W. THE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING
THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE





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