[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. MID
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A
WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 61W-64W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N13W 8N24W 11N39W 9N45W 10N58W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 40W FROM 8N-16N
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 11N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
11N38W TO 14N39W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 16W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E US INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CLEARED THE GULF ON TUE LEAVING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERING THE GULF S OF 26N W OF 83W WHILE THE N GULF IS
REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS WHICH
IS ADVECTING UPPER MOSITURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF MAINLY IN THE FORM OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONTS HAVE FINALLY MERGED INTO ONE FRONT ENTERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO N
HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 14N71W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 77W.
OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF THE US INTO
THE W ATLC W OF 63W WITH A JETSTREAM OF WINDS 90 TO 115 KT N OF
25N W OF 67W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. A SINGLE COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 25N70W ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N77W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF
THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO
80W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 22N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO 22N56W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS INT
HE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N54W JUST TO THE W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 50W/51W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N
E OF 28W TO OVER NW AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NE ATLC NEAR THE BORDER OF MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N20W THEN NE TO 31N32W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED S OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N23W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 50W.
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 25W-60W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTERN COLD FRONT.

$$
WALLACE




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