[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
CIMSS TPW PRODUCT REVEALS A MOISTURE SURGE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. A LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE  / ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS N OF 8N BETWEEN 19W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS FROM 12N-17N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N20W 6N30W 6N40W 11N56W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100
UTC...THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N84W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG
29N83W 26N85W 23N87W TO ANOTHER SFC LOW NEAR 22N87W. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS COVER THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15-20 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT TO 85W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE AREA AND E-NE WINDS
10-15 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1012 MB SFC LOW NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A SFC
TROUGH FROM 22N87W ALONG 19N87W TO 17N88W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 17N83W CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING
IN SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 80W. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ARE FREE OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADES 15-20 KT COVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB SFC LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDS A WARM
THROUGH GEORGIA AND INTO THE W ATLC JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 29N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE
FORCE WITHIN 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ON NWS
DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 75W AND N OF 25N. A BROAD SFC RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLC BETWEEN 56W-80W. A 1009 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS E OF
THIS RIDGE NEAR 31N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ALONG 26N56W TO 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES
ALONG 24N70W TO 28N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N51W
TO 22N54W. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SFC TROUGH N OF 24N. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH
OVER THE AZORES...COVERING THE ATLC E OF 43W.


$$
WADDINGTON



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