[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 18W-26W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
6N-15N BETWEEN 18W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS IS AIDING IN SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN...CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W. THIS WAVE
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N19W 6N22W 6N32W 6N35W
7W54W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW
CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W TO ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE LOW NEWD ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND SRN GEORGIA. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS COVER THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF THE COLD
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALSO PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N86W TO CANCUN
MEXICO. THIS LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW IS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING NEWD E OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT PREVAIL W OF 88W WITH MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N83W WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING W OF 64W. A 1013 MB AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 19N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH CANCUN MEXICO INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 81W-88W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS
ACROSS PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR NOTED OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 73W. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW IN THE NE
GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NRN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC WATERS FROM
24N-32N W OF 77W. AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS ALSO LOCATED
OFF THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. FARTHER
EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N50W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE E/CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SHALLOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO NEAR 22N55W REMAINING
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHICH
EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND LESSER ANTILLES
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
25N-32N BETWEEN 48W-53W. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E ATLC LARGELY DUE TO
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ERN ATLC E OF 45W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 19N33W. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET IS LOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
PRODUCING A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS FROM
12N30W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO WEST
AFRICA.

$$
HUFFMAN




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