[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A PERSISTENT 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N88W IN
NORTHERN BELIZE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOME FORM
HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/GULF OF HONDURAS/INLAND HONDURAS
AREA SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MADE LANDFALL IN AND
DISSIPATED IN INTERIOR HONDURAS ON 16 OCTOBER 2008. RAIN HAS
BEEN FALLING IN HONDURAS AND NEIGHBORING AREAS DURING MUCH OF
THE LAST TEN DAYS OR SO. MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. THE MAJOR
RIVERS HAVE FLOODED OVER THEIR BANKS. NEWS MEDIA REPORTS
INDICATE THAT ABOUT 200,000 RESIDENTS IN HONDURAS HAVE SUFFERED
DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO COVER THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AREAS
OF EL SALVADOR TO BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...AND OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH
OF 20N PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W INCLUDING IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR
THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
DIRECTION OF POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. TWO MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 25N
BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 20N PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL HONDURAS AT THIS TIME...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W INCLUDING IN SOUTHERN
HONDURAS NEAR THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 7N28W 9N40W 10N48W 10N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W...WITH THE 17W/18W TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 13N BETWEEN 10W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND REACHES THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21.5N 97.5W.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THIS FRONT AS SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N90W.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 28N83W...CONNECTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT TOUCHES FLORIDA
ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE NEAR 28N81W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N70W TO 28N81W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 23N90W. A SEPARATE AND INDEPENDENT TROUGH IS ALONG
25N84W 21N86W. THIS TROUGH IS JUST NORTH OF THE 86W/87W
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
EAST OF 90W. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY...AND
IT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH
THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PRODUCE GALE FORCE GAP WINDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION
IN A DEVELOPING GALE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W.
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N81W. THE 86W/87W
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N63W.
IT APPEARS THAT DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALREADY HAS BEEN EXISTING
IN PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 65W. MORE SUCH DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH. THE COMPARATIVELY NEWER AREA OF DRY AIR IS NORTHEAST
OF 20N66W 15N65W 14N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 79W AND 82W APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE
ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W
TO 27N70W TO 28N81W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 32N53W 21N62W 21N73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N55W 28N54W 31N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N54W 27N51W
BEYOND 32N48W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 55W/56W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 22N54W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N63W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS
OUT ON TOP OF MOROCCO...INTO THE WESTERN SAHARA...INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N25W TO 12N39W TO 11N44W.

$$
MT


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