[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW LEVEL
COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION PRESENT NEAR WAVE AXIS. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.
HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR
THE ITCZ FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W 5-10 KT. CIMSS
WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
THAT IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 49W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO W OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 84W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BASED ON CIMSS WAVETRAK
PRODUCT. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 79W-87W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N30W 11N55W 10N62W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG
30N91W 24N98W 24N102W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N91W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-88W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER THE N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE GAP WINDS INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. FAIR SKIES ARE E OF 75W. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE SLOWLY W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER
PRODUCERS IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W
29N70W 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N52W
25N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 48W-53W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 60W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH AN EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N53W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N32W.

$$
FORMOSA




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