[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
66W-69W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N20W 8N30W 10N41W 9N50W
9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N
E OF 18W TO INLAND W AFRICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 25N80W 22N90W 18N92W. N OF FRONT WINDS ARE FROM
THE N AT 10-15 KT. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ENTERING THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE GAP WINDS THAT ARE
EXITING TO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S
MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 91W-98W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN
80W-84W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS NOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE
OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
AND NE FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 82W-90W.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SW TO 15N80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 72W...AND IS OVER SE
CARIBBEAN AND N VENEZUELA S OF 13N. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W AND EXTENDS SW
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
25N60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N48W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N34W. NW FLOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLAND E
OF 20W N OF 15N.

$$
FORMOSA





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