[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH A SMALL LOWER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N. MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE IS BEING DRAWN N AWAY FROM
THE WAVE BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 57W/58W HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG
62W S OF 14N BASED ON UPPER DATA FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-67W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 8N19W 8N31W 10N41W 9N52W
9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-11N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 49W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA
NEAR MIAMI JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 22N88W WHERE IT BECOMES
NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
26N96W TO 21N94W. THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
COVERS ALL OF THE GULF AND THE E US E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TO ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAINTAINING A BAND OF LOW/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE COVERS THE SW GULF S OF
24N W OF 91W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE OF THE FRONT E OF 84W THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER
THE E US AND GULF WITH DRY/STABLE AIR LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH ONLY COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER WEAK UPPER FEATURES AND EQUALLY WEAK
UPPER WINDS WHICH IS NOT PROVIDING STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE
1010 MB LOW THAT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL BELIZE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N W OF
80W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND HONDURAS. A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W ANCHORED
OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDING OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM SW HAITI NEAR
18N73W ALONG 14N76W TO BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NEAR 9N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG
THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N72W ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR MIAMI INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 71W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DRY/STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF
THE COLD FRONT E OF 75W AND WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
30N60W ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF OMAR BUT IS ALSO EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DRY UPPER AIR THAT COVERS THE W ATLC. A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N51W 22N58W TO 19N62W PRODUCING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N.
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS
THE W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR ALONG 20N27W COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N50W TO 11N45W AND IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S
OVER THE E ATLC AND W AFRICA N OF 15N E OF 30W AMPLIFYING AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE W BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW IN
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E TROPICAL
ATLC HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE S DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING S OF THE E ATLC EXTENDING E/W ALONG 8N TO 30W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND N OF 20N E
OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N33W.

$$
WALLACE




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