[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
OMAR WAS UPGRADED BACK TO A HURRICANE AT 17/2100 UTC. OMAR IS
LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 53.6W OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM... EAST OF
BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1580 MILES...2540 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
OMAR WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION IS ALREADY DIMINISHING NEAR OMAR'S CENTER PARTIALLY
DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A
NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS SEEN. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A VERY LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-15N
BETWEEN 22W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE SSMI-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-9N BETWEEN 52W-54W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 10N31W 7N40W 10N52W
9N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 32W-36W...AND FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG
30N90W 26N95W 22N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER MEXICO
ALONG 22N102W 29N108W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. ANOTHER 1010 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-75W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
15N AND E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. A RIDGE IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. HURRICANE OMAR IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH TO 26N43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS NEAR HURRICANE OMAR AT 30N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N37W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E OF 30W AND S OF 23N. THE BASE
OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLAND E OF 25N N OF 25N.

$$
FORMOSA







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