[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171102 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO INCLUDE A COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR AT 17/0900 UTC IS NEAR
26.0N 56.4W. OMAR IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES 22 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
54W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON
TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. A 26N20W TO 17N36W TO
9N43W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W.
SOME OR ALL OF THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORMS PART OF
THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

10N13W 7N20W 8N30W 8N40W 9N51W 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 2N TO 15N
BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. A 26N20W TO 17N36W TO 9N43W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS ITCZ PRECIPITATION.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W
AND 16W. THE OTHER ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THE 51W TROPICAL
WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
26N100W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA EAST OF 92W.
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE
26N100W MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
UNDER THE RIDGE AND MOSTLY WEST OF 93W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W...AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO
NEAR 24N103W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N103W TO
29N107W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN IS IN WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N88W JUST OFF
THE COAST OF BELIZE. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
INTO NORTH CENTRAL GUATEMALA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. OTHER
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 19N WEST
OF 80W INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 14N74W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STARTS OUT WEST OF 86W...AND THEN IT RETREATS
WESTWARD TO BE WEST OF BELIZE NORTH OF 13N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
MONA PASSAGE TO 16N72W TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 25N56W
22N65W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 14N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE 32N12W 9N43W
TROUGH AND THE 32N56W-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM OMAR
IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 32N56W-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A 26N20W TO 17N36W TO 9N43W MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM
2N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W.

$$
MT





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