[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 162354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE OMAR IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 59.7W AT 17/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 305 NM NORTHEAST OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING N-NE AT
23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NE QUADRANT. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
REMAIN WELL TO THE E AND SE OF THE CENTER WITHIN 120 NM OF A
LINE FROM 25N54W TO 15N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 74W. OMAR IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY SUNDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-15N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE SSMI-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N22W 7N26W 6N33W 7N44W 7N49W
9N61W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
31W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N101W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOIST SLY WIND
FLOW IS OVER THE GULF W OF 91W INCLUDING THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS EXTENDING SE TO
BROWNSVILLE AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO NEAR 20N96W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WRN GULF W OF 94W AND ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTROLS THE GULF E OF 91W...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/
DRY AIR IS ALSO NOTED IN THE UPPER-LEVELS E OF 92W IN THE GULF.
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF THIS
EVENING S OF 25N AND E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM A WRN ATLC UPPER LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA AND THE
NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER
ERN EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N88W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING ACTIVITY INTO WRN
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OMAR ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTH OF THE ABC
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE
E OF 74W. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 14N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
NE VENEZUELA AND IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO AID IN
SUPPORTING THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE ERN US SEABOARD INTO
WRN ATLC WATERS AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE BRINGING DRY AIR ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
37N57W EXTENDS TO AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W SW TO JUST NORTH OF OMAR NEAR 29N53W.
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS
WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE E ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N29W. ALOFT A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN IS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WITH RIDGES
CENTERED NEAR 30N44W AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA. BOTH RIDGES ARE
SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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