[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OMAR IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR AT
16/0900 UTC IS NEAR 20.3N 62.4W OR ABOUT 140 NM...260 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 100 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
15N63W 18N61W 20N59W...FROM 18.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
63W...AND WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N60W 14N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WEAKENED AFTER 16/0300 UTC.
ITS 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN
HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
A COMPARATIVELY BIGGER AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF EL SALVADOR SIX
HOURS AGO. THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED. THE LINEAR
AND DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION NOW IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
EL SALVADOR COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 9N TO 19N BETWEEN
17W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

10N14W 6N30W 8N42W 10N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS FROM 6N TO
10N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W
AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N5W
5N12W 6N13W 6N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N102W MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER NEAR
29N101W...ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18N92W IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO 22N95W
BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE UNDER THE RIDGE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 90W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE 31N60W-TO-PUERTO RICO TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT EVENTUALLY REACHES 15N72W.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF PUERTO
RICO...NORTH AND WEST OF 20N67W 15N70W 17N80W 20N90W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE 15N72W TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N73W
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE LAST
BULLETIN/ADVISORY ALREADY WAS WRITTEN FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN SIX HOURS AGO. THE LOW CENTER IS OVER LAND IN
SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W INCLUDING IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. A COMPARATIVELY BIGGER AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF
EL SALVADOR SIX HOURS AGO. THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS
DISSIPATED. THE LINEAR AND DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION NOW
IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 31N60W TO 23N66W TO PUERTO RICO TO 15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF
20N67W 15N70W 17N80W 20N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 50W NORTH OF 10N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W.
THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N61W HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 33N55W HAS FORMED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N55W 27N56W AND 23N59W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 23N45.5W...28.5N46W...AND FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W
AND 48W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE 25N19W TO 11N39W TROUGH...AND THE 31N60W
CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N19W TO 16N33W TO 11N39W.

$$
MT




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