[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR AT 15/1200 UTC IS NEAR 14.9N 67.5W
OR ABOUT 230 NM...425 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT
230 MILES...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N AT THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA/BONAIRE/ CURACAO TO 16.5N BETWEEN 64.5W AND
70.5W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 15/1200 UTC IS NEAR
16.0N 84.2W OR ABOUT 80 NM...150 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND
ABOUT 245 MILES...460 KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MOVING WEST AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA AT 10N TO EASTERN
HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM OF THE HONDURAS...SOUTH OF 18N
WEST OF 81W...EVEN IN HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 85W AND
86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 80W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN EL SALVADOR...AND ALONG
THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST SIDE OF COSTA RICA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20.5N 46.5W IS THE REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF NANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME
CELLS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N43W IS JUST A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE AREAS WHERE
NANA WAS WHILE NANA WAS A TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

...THE ITCZ...
12N16W 8N30W 8N38W 8N48W 9N56W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N99W MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO
20N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
T.D. SIXTEEN...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE ARE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 COVERS THE WESTERN SECTION.
HURRICANE OMAR COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 32N62W TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 18N72W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO SOUTH FLORIDA BEYOND 32N83W. THE WHOLE AREA OF THE TROUGH AND
RIDGE ARE COVERED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WEST OF 74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 19N62W TO 24N56W BEYOND 32N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 30N54W 24N60W 21N66W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N18W...WEST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA.
DRY AIR IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM NORTH-SOUTH OF
THE CENTER...AND WITHIN 110 NM EAST-WEST OF THE CENTER.

$$
MT


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