[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150622
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR AT 15/0300 UTC IS NEAR 14.3N 68.1W
MOVING NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 15/0600 UTC IS NEAR
16.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 105 MILES/175 KM...EAST OF LIMN HONDURAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES 5 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS...AND OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE WEST OF 75W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE.

THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N46W IS THE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OF NANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOME CELLS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N43W IS JUST A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE AREAS WHERE
NANA WAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM
TO 30 NM RADIUS NEAR 18N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE
WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N42W...
TO 18N42W.

...THE ITCZ...
10N15W 9N20W 9N40W 10N50W 12N59W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SIERRA LEONE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS SENEGAL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N99W MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N97W AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
T.D. SIXTEEN...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 26N90W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ARE EAST OF THE LINE
FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR
29N90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N93W 27N92W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 COVERS THE WESTERN SECTION.
HURRICANE OMAR COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 32N62W TO 25N68W TO 20N70W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING
AROUND THE ENTIRE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS EAST OF 76W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
76W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 25N55W BEYOND
32N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N55W TO 21N66W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 19N EAST OF 50W.
$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net