[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY THROUGH
14/0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA AT 14/0900 UTC IS NEAR
18.4N 43.3W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES 12 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS WITHIN
A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN AT 14/1200 UTC IS NEAR
14.2N 69.1W...OR ABOUT 315 NM...580 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 120 NM...225 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 2 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

A 1006 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT
50 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14.5N82W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N
80W AND 86W...TOUCHING PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS. THE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N WEST OF 74W FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME ISOLATED OR
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N41W. THIS LOW CENTER
HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KT DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 14N TO
19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT READILY APPARENT THAT
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE SIX HOURS AGO CONTINUES TO BE MORE OR LESS
WHERE IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED
MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY IS RELATED TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
10N15W 9N20W 9N40W 10N50W 12N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 10W AND 43W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TWO
CELLS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
19N98W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR THE MEXICO
COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 29N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 COVERS THE EAST-CENTRAL SECTION.
THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE
AREA. A 62W TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
36N62W...NORTH OF THE AREA. A TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD IN
FRONT OF THE 36N62W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 29N60W 26N72W.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 32N51W TO 28N61W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 28N61W 27N70W BEYOND 30N85W. THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE 36N62W CYCLONE IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N29W 26N35W...WITH NO SENSIBLE PRECIPITATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 12N59W 18N59W CURVING TO 24N52W.
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 28N50W 24N62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE THROUGH 32N45W
27N55W 22N69W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 21N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN
56W AND 63W.

$$
MT




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