[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTCA82 TJSJ 140942
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
   CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2
WEST...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...OR
ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PONCE...OR ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ST CROIX...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST THOMAS.

THE DEPRESSION WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. A
TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-150945-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DEPRESSION LOCATION.
FORECAST TRACK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALL OF PUERTO RICO...THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING. RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND MOTORISTS SHOULD THEREFORE
EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 INCHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST...AND MOVE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL
STORM EARLY THURSDAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WATCH AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RAPID RIVER RISES AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
TROPICAL STORM PLAN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC
STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO...AND ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...

IN PLAYA DE PONCE...
1.0 FEET AT 9:47 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.1 FEET AT 10:48 AM AST THURSDAY

IN LIME TREE BAY SAINT CROIX...
1.0 FEET AT 10:13 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.0 FEET AT 11:18 AM AST THURSDAY

IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE SAINT THOMAS...
1.1 FEET AT 9:35 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.2 FEET AT 10:32 AM AST THURSDAY

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY...AND WILL THEN
CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF PUERTO RICO MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED AREAS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE FREQUENT BANDS THEN SPREADING OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 930 AM AST THIS TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-150945-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
542 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION.
FORECAST TRACK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND
NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
REACHING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LOCAL WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 930 AM AST THIS TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

FIGUEROA




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