[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTCA82 TJSJ 140629
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.AT 200 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT
360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...OR ABOUT
312 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PONCE...OR ABOUT 388 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST
CROIX... OR ABOUT 406 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST THOMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. A TURN
TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-150630-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
229 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DEPRESSION LOCATION.
FORECAST TRACK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALL OF PUERTO RICO...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND MOTORISTS CAN THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST...AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH
AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID
RIVER RISES AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS
FLOW.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
TROPICAL STORM PLAN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC
STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE STORM SURGE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...

IN PLAYA DE PONCE...
1.0 FEET AT 9:47 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.1 FEET AT 10:48 AM AST THURSDAY

IN LIME TREE BAY SAINT CROIX...
1.0 FEET AT 10:13 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.0 FEET AT 11:18 AM AST THURSDAY

IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE SAINT THOMAS...
1.1 FEET AT 9:35 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.2 FEET AT 10:32 AM AST THURSDAY

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ALL OF PUERTO RICO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED AREAS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS
TUESDAY...WITH MORE FREQUENT BANDS THEN SPREADING OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 630 AM AST THIS TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-150630-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
229 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION.
FORECAST TRACK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ON TUESDAY AND NOT
VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC
STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STORM
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SEA LEVEL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE STORM SURGE IS MOSTLY
EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LOCAL WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 630 AM AST THIS TUESDAY MORNING.

$$




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