[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTCA82 TJSJ 140430
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1230 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.AT 1100 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...OR ABOUT 290 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PONCE...OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST CROIX...
OR ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST THOMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW MOTION TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-140730-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1230 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

DEPRESSION LOCATION.
FORECAST TRACK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN...WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS AND BRING OCCASIONAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALL OF PUERTO RICO...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND MOTORISTS CAN THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST...AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH
AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID
RIVER RISES AND FLASH FLOODING...ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS
FLOW.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS
RECOMMENDED YOU PREPARE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND REVIEW YOUR
TROPICAL STORM PLAN.

PEOPLE LOCATED IN THE WATCH AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FREQUENTLY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS MEDIA...FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVOLVING SITUATION WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE STORM
APPROACHES. IN ALL CASES HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS BATTERIES FOR RADIOS
AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED GOODS OR DRIED
FOOD...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...BABY SUPPLIES...AND PRESCRIPTIONS AND
MEDICINES. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLES AND HAVE SOME EXTRA FUEL ON HAND
FOR GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS IF NEEDED. IT IS ALSO BEST TO HAVE
SOME EXTRA CASH AS CREDIT CARDS MAY NOT BE AN OPTION IF ELECTRIC
POWER GOES OUT. KEEP YOUR CELL PHONE WELL CHARGED BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD PROTECT WINDOWS AND DOORS AGAINST
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS OR TIED DOWN.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS SHOULD CONSIDER WHETHER TO TEMPORARILY
EVACUATE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM WIND
THREAT PASSES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC
STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL MAY OCCUR MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE STORM SURGE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE EXPECTED TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA...

IN PLAYA DE PONCE...
1.0 FEET AT 9:47 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.1 FEET AT 10:48 AM AST THURSDAY

IN LIME TREE BAY SAINT CROIX...
1.0 FEET AT 10:13 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.0 FEET AT 11:18 AM AST THURSDAY

IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE SAINT THOMAS...
1.1 FEET AT 9:35 AM AST WEDNESDAY
1.2 FEET AT 10:32 AM AST THURSDAY

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ALL OF PUERTO RICO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED AREAS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH.

...INLAND FLOODING...

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
FRINGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS
TUESDAY...WITH MORE FREQUENT BANDS THEN SPREADING OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 330 AM AST THIS TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-140730-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
1230 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION.
FORECAST TRACK.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ON TUESDAY AND NOT
VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC
STORM TIDES TO BE CAUSED BY THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STORM
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SEA LEVEL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE STORM SURGE IS MOSTLY
EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LOCAL WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 330 AM AST THIS TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

EM/BCS

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