[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 132037
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NANA HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE TODAY AND
THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
NANA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.  IT IS
TEMPTING TO DECLARE NANA REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT
SEEMS BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THAT CONVECTION
DOES NOT TRY TO REFORM.

NANA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
295/8 KT.  NANA OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED TO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/2100Z 17.5N  40.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.1N  41.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.9N  42.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.9N  44.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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