[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 130240
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2030Z HAD BELIEVABLE 35 KT
VECTORS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  WITH NO
APPRECIABLE LET UP OF THE SHEAR INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW FAIRLY SOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH.  IF NANA DOES NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED...IT
PROBABLY WOULD INTERACT MORE STRONGLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
TAKE A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 16.6N  38.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N  40.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.2N  41.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.9N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



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