[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 15N36W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 34W-37W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS WEST. AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IS OCCURRING AROUND 1390 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING N 5-10 KT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE W OF THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
15N36W. A SUBTLE INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 14N-22N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE...WAVE IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED TO THE W OF A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED
IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N64W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER N CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
90W-93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF EL SALVADOR FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N24W 10N39W 6N52W 10N63W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
23W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
27W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 42W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 29N80W
TO 25N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N97W 21N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W
CUBA NEAR 22N83W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W TO
INCLUDE FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF
EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N...
AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 66W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 74W-76W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO
RICO NEAR 19N66W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 75W. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N78W 29N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 28N67W 24N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 66W-70W. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W
29N48W 28N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 46W-48W. A 1016 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
32N13W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N46W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
9N35W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS E OF 45W.

$$
FORMOSA


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