[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 38W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 23N WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 43W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND
48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
26N50W TO 20N54W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 21N39W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N42W TO 10N49W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WEST 10 OR LESS. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH THAT HAS LASTED
FOR AT LEAST THE LAST FIVE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AND FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN
54W AND 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SPILLING OVER INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM
SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/WATERS OF THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 8N20W 9N32W 10N43W 9N54W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W. THIS
TROUGH IS DRIVING A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ONE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1012 MB LOW CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA TO 25N85W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N90W...CURVING TO 23N94W AND 19N95W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM
RADIUS OF 23N90W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC/COASTAL MEXICO AND 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER
IN MEXICO. A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1012 MB
LOW CENTER INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N79W 27N77W 24N74W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 32N WEST OF 72W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE BRANCH OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 21N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...TO 15N77W AND TO 13N80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 9.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W IN THE WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THE 21N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN CENTER STILL COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO TO COASTAL SENEGAL. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N24W
TO 26N32W TO 21N30W. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED. WIND FORECASTS ACCORDING TO THE BEAUFORT SCALE
RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 ARE IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS AREAS OF
SAO VICENTE.

$$
MT




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