[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
CENTERED WITHIN A BROAD MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITH IN THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
39W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS LOCATED E OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 55W-62W...WHICH
INCLUDES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER OVERALL SURFACE FLOW
OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA N OF 17N.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 8N29W 8N33W 10N38W 10N42W
12N57W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SRN GEORGIA IS ACROSS THE SE US AND
EXTENDS UPPER TROUGHING INTO THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 25N E OF
86W. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N84W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION INTO THE GULF
ALONG 29N83W TO 25N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 22N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING
N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE NW OF THE
FRONT...THUS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE GULF N OF 25N. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE WRN GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO OVER ERN TEXAS. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR...ALONG WITH THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW GULF ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 92W-96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS RIDGING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 74W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. MORE CONCENTRATED AREAS OF
ACTIVITY ARE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC ENTERS THE N/CENTRAL
AND NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
AND EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 74W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOIST AIR
SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 55W-62W...
INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ALSO COVERING AN AREA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 70W-74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND ACROSS NRN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ERN CUBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 65W. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER SRN GEORGIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N79W SE TO NEAR 28N77W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 78W-82W AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO THE N
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 47W-73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING SW TO 23N64W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO JUST NE
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N40W COVERING THE
AREA S OF 28N INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-46W.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC N OF 13N E OF
20W WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER WRN AFRICA. A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG COASTAL MOROCCO
AND WESTERN SAHARA WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 25-30 KT N OF 22N AND
E OF 16W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 11N31W AND IS AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE ERN ATLC N OF 20N E OF 42W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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